Corruption would start in the outer provinces. There would be minor uprisings amongst the peasants, which would be put down, and land would be taken away from the peasants. Taxes would rise and become a burden on the people. Towards the end of the dynasty, there would be a major natural disaster or series of disasters, which the emperor would not or could not address, and the people would be left on their own.
At this time, one of the noble or rich families would start a major revolution, which would be supported by the people of China, and soon the old dynasty would be overthrown, bringing us back to the top of the circle. This was the pattern of dynastic rule in China. Mandate of Heaven. Dynasties Story and Game.
Not only did Mao and his comrades not institute democracy, as they had repeatedly promised before the Chinese Communist Party CCP defeated the nationalists and seized political power. Instead, the CCP became increasingly illiberal and politically intolerant, prosecuting successive campaigns in the s and s that destroyed millions of lives. Despite the dissonance between ideals and rhetoric on the one hand, and practice on the other, the Huang-Mao dialogue has been much celebrated by the CCP, especially in recent years.
Xi Jinping has repeatedly used this dialogue as a warning to party cadres against complacency. In January , Xi addressed the topic of dynastic cycle and political power at some length in a speech on party-building. After discussing select historical episodes, he concluded that the common denominator that led to the fall of past Chinese regimes is internal erosion, especially from corruption and division.
Like Mao, Xi recognises the challenges posed by the dynastic cycle. But unlike Mao, Xi does not seem to believe that this challenge could be dealt with once and for all, but rather that the Party will always need to be in fighting mode to retain its preeminence in the political order. Mao and Xi shared the same goal, which is to keep CCP in power. But their methods differ. The Tang expands its territory and influence east to the Koreas, west along the Silk Road, and south into Indochina.
Tang China emerges as a major trading power, linking Eurasia and South Asia. But to maintain that empire requires an expansive bureaucracy, and over time the regions themselves become more powerful and the center weakens.
Eventually the Tang Empire fractures into warlord states. This pattern is repeated by the Song Dynasty, which reconsolidates the Chinese core, but is itself ultimately chipped away by the Yuan Dynasty pushing in from the Mongolian plains. The Yuan push the expansion to its extremes, going so far as to attempt the invasion of Japan and Indonesia. As the Yuan also fall victim to the Chinese expansion cycle they are replaced with the Ming and a return to local Han rule.
The Ming also follow the similar dynastic pattern and are overthrown by the Manchu, who establish the Qing dynasty. This, too, suffers a similar fate, paving the way for modern China and the consolidation of power under the Communist Party. This is a very simplified view of Chinese history, but if we look at China today, we see similar signs of the threats of dynastic cycle. Rifts exist between the rural and urban populations, between the coast and the interior, between the north and the south — in short, the old stresses of China are once again exerting themselves.
With the economic stresses brought forward in the past few years, this is presenting a significant challenge to Beijing. Steps the government takes to appease the rural and newly urban interior draw resources and attention away from the wealthy coasts. Attempts to consolidate industry for the sake of national macroeconomic stability threaten local interests. Despite tight social controls, central authority is beginning to weaken in the face of local power and social unease.
What we are seeing in China today is not unique to the Communist leadership. Certainly the specifics are different, but the geography of China and the evolution of its populations bring similar challenges today that were faced by earlier dynasties.
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